:Product: 1201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 01/1622Z from Region 3906 (S16W49). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/1754Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec). III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Dec 186 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 185/185/170 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 206 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/15