:Product: 1202RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 02/0705Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 02/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 02/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec). III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Dec 185 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 185/180/170 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 205 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15