:Product: 1204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 04/1000Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 04/1614Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2231Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec). III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Dec 175 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 204 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20