:Product: 1205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/1040Z from Region 3906 (S17W99). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 05/0802Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0128Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec). III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec Class M 30/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Dec 175 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 203 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/008-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20