:Product: 1206RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 06/0920Z from Region 3917 (S08E37). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 06/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (09 Dec). III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Dec 178 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/008-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/15