:Product: 1207RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 07/1308Z from Region 3917 (S07E24). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 07/0313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/0435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10 Dec), and quiet on day two (09 Dec). III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Dec 183 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/15/20