:Product: 1208RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 08/0906Z from Region 3912 (S06W61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (09 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (10 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (11 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 08/1931Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 08/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (09 Dec). III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec Class M 60/50/50 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Dec 178 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 007/008-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20