:Product: 1209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1612Z from Region 3912 (S06W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (11 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (12 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/1058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/2317Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Dec). III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec Class M 60/50/50 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Dec 172 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 010/012-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20