:Product: 1210RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10/1102Z from Region 3922 (S17E59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 09/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 352 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec). III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Dec 172 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 010/012-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/15