:Product: 1211RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 11/1549Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 10/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 801 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec). III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec Class M 60/60/60 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Dec 161 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15