:Product: 1214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 14/0147Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 13/2237Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Dec). III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec Class M 45/45/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Dec 171 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 008/010-009/008-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/35 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/25/50