:Product: 1215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 15/2024Z from Region 3920 (N22W42). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 15/2003Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Dec, 18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec). III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec Class M 45/45/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Dec 172 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 009/008-012/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/20 Minor Storm 05/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/50/30