:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/0732Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec,
19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 15/2304Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 16/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/0721Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 167
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 170/170/175
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/15