:Product: 1219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 19/1534Z from Region 3928 (S14E60). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 18/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/0015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 393 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec). III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec Class M 50/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Dec 175 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15