:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0038Z from Region 3932 (S17E56). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 21/0842Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/2058Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 21/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 756 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 195
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 201

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  005/008-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/25