:Product: 1222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1414Z from Region 3934 (N13E47). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 22/1817Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 22/0625Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 681 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec). III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Dec 223 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 008/008-008/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/25