:Product: 1223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 23/1112Z from Region 3932 (S17E27). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 22/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1632Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 23/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1540 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec). III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Dec 238 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/010-018/025-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/30 Minor Storm 10/30/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/65/40