:Product: 1224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 24/0019Z from Region 3932 (S18E13). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 24/0747Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 23/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 802 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec). III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec Class M 75/75/75 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Dec 259 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 260/260/255 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 203 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 018/025-018/025-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/30 Minor Storm 30/30/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 65/70/40