:Product: 1225RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 25/0449Z from Region 3932 (S18E01). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 25/0052Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0435Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 25/0255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 772 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec). III. Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec Class M 75/75/75 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Dec 253 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 250/250/255 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 204 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 020/025-009/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/30/20 Minor Storm 30/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 70/40/30