:Product: 1227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 27/2035Z from Region 3938 (N19E25). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (30 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 27/0850Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 969 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Dec). III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 70/70/75 Class X 20/20/25 Proton 10/10/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 259 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 260/260/240 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 206 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 007/008-007/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/25