:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1121Z from Region 3932 (S18W34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Dec) and
expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and
three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 429 km/s at 28/0149Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/0900Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 608 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Dec, 30 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (31 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (29 Dec) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    70/75/75
Class X    20/25/25
Proton     10/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 260
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/240
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 206

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  007/008-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15