:Product: 1229RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 29/0718Z from Region 3936 (N12W42). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 29/0755Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 307 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to severe storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Jan). III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan Class M 80/80/75 Class X 30/30/25 Proton 20/20/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Dec 255 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 255/240/210 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 207 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/008-033/050-018/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/40 Minor Storm 05/35/30 Major-severe storm 01/50/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/01/05 Minor Storm 30/10/20 Major-severe storm 25/85/65