:Product: 1230RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Dec 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 30/0414Z from Region 3936 (N12W55). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 29/2250Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Jan). III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan Class M 80/80/80 Class X 30/30/25 Proton 20/20/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Dec 224 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 225/225/215 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 207 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 028/050-018/020-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/20 Minor Storm 35/30/05 Major-severe storm 50/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 01/05/15 Minor Storm 10/20/30 Major-severe storm 85/65/25