:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at
31/2155Z from Region 3536 (N05E75). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed was estimated to have reached a peak around 350 km/s. Total
IMF reached 11 nT at 01/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -11 nT at 01/2100Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 01/0035Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 136
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  018/026-011/014-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/25