:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/1830Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04
Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 02/1135Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 02/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
01/2100Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 02/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 142
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15