:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1018Z from Region 3536 (N06E37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 03/1952Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 03/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1825Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11 pfu at 03/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 140
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  009/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15