:Product: 0105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jan 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0809Z from Region 3534 (S15W61). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 05/1209Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25 pfu at 05/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan Class M 35/35/35 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jan 153 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 006/005-008/008-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/25/40