:Product: 0106RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jan 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/1535Z from Region 3538 (N21W28). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 05/2129Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 06/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan Class M 35/35/35 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jan 159 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan NA/ NA Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 008/008-007/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/15 Minor Storm 05/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 25/40/10