:Product: 0107RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jan 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 07/0756Z from Region 3536 (N05W20). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 07/0012Z, although that value is suspect. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 07/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jan 167 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 007/010-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/15/20 Major-severe storm 40/10/15