:Product: 0108RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Jan 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 07/2225Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 08/1806Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 176 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/15/15