:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/1936Z from Region 3538 (N20W67). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan,
12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached an estimated peak of 423 km/s at 09/0000Z (estimated
due to DSCOVR/ACE data gaps). Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0135Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1203Z.  Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 176
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15