:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1255Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan,
13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1126Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
10/1849Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1033Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 186
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 185/185/175
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/25