:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2328Z from Region 3538 (N20W81). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan,
14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 11/0502Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/0154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0522Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    45/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 193
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 192/190/186
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  006/005-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/25