:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0258Z from Region 3547 (N19E05). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan,
15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/1230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1246Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    45/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 186
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  006/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15