:Product: 0113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the
period was a C2.7 at 13/0421 UTC from a region just beyond the ENE limb.
Region 3541 (S22W33, Dao/beta-delta) exhibited some consolidation and
formed a weak delta configuration. The other 12 spotted regions only had
minor changes throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan,
16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 13/0056Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1830Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jan, 16
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       NA

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 185
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 185/190/190
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  007/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/20