:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
14/1206Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 14/0328Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/0736Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 188
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 190/190/185
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  006/005-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/30