:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1405Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached an estimated peak of 372 km/s at 15/1306Z. Wind speeds were
suspect due to unreliable DSCOVR data. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
15/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1940Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan,
17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 183
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 185/185/175
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  008/008-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/25