:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0408Z from Region 3553 (N05E03). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan,
21 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s at 18/0907Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/0335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0636Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jan 162
Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 162/160/155
90 Day Mean        18 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/005-008/010-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20