:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/1935Z from Region 3559 (N27E22). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 21/0246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0726Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23
Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 179
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  018/030-024/035-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/15
Minor Storm           35/35/05
Major-severe storm    20/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    75/20/20