:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/1947Z from Region 3559 (N27E11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 509 km/s at 22/1950Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
22/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/1923Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7 pfu at 22/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (25 Jan). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one
and two (23 Jan, 24 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     55/55/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 196
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  024/035-010/010-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/40
Minor Storm           35/05/20
Major-severe storm    15/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/60