:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
23/0331Z from Region 3559 (N27W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 22/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0941Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Jan, 26
Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 180
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  014/018-016/020-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/55/30