:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0140Z from Region 3561 (S17W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 24/0850Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/2342Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Jan) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (27 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 172
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  016/020-018/025-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    55/30/30