:Product: 0125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/1522Z from Region 3561 (S17W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/0614Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
25/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1743Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan), active to
minor storm levels on day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (28 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    45/45/35
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 161
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 160/160/150
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  018/025-023/030-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/20