:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/0033Z from Region 3561 (S17W85). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 26/2021Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/1309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/1251Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (29 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 157
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 155/145/140
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  021/028-015/018-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/25