:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1039Z from Region 3561 (S14W0*). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan,
30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/2229Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 148
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/008-011/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25