:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
29/0438Z from Region 3559 (N26W83). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan,
01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 29/0332Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1457Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 136 pfu at 29/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Jan, 31 Jan) and
quiet levels on day three (01 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev are
expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Jan) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    40/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     99/15/01
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 140
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/012-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/25