:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1740Z from Region 3559 (N29W97). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb,
02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 30/0541Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/0009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/0314Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 41 pfu at 29/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (02 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     20/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 135
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  012/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/20