:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0829Z from Region 3567 (N19E54). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb,
03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 30/2131Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 31/0035Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 196 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03
Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 136
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25