:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0743Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb,
04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 01/0757Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
01/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0802Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Feb, 03 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 137
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/50