:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0301Z from Region 3571 (S17E49). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb,
05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 02/0626Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 247 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (04 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 143
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  006/005-012/014-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/60